The Review 2009

28 The Review 2009 • Research The outbreak of swine flu (H1N1) in 2009 triggered fear of a pandemic. Research at the University suggests this fear is well-founded, especially when considered over the long term. The three worst influenza outbreaks of the 20th century, in 1918, 1957 and 1968, were caused by viruses that had been circulating for two to 15 years before they became pandemics. Moreover, some of the viruses came from pigs, rather than birds as previously thought, and were generated by the genetic exchange between swine and human viruses. The findings suggest surveillance of influenza viruses needs to be broadened to look at all virus genes, not just the HA and NA genes, according to Professor Guan Yi and Dr Gavin Smith of the State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases in the Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, who led the research and published their findings in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences . Professor Guan was also involved in a separate, multi-university study which reported in Nature that the current swine flu virus had been circulating several months before the first outbreak in Mexico in March. “We already know where the viruses that triggered the last pandemics came from, how they were generated and which pathway they took. We are now putting all our energy, all our manpower and finance towards one end, and maybe we will have a chance to avert the next pandemic,” he said. The swine flu studies are part of a broader body of work produced under the University’s year-old Area of Excellence project on influenza. In 2009 scientists also reported progress towards developing a vaccine against bird flu (H5N1 avian influenza A). Although Professor Guan’s research suggests bird flu poses less threat of a pandemic than previously thought, the small outbreaks that have occurred have been particularly deadly. One new vaccine strategy for bird flu that shows promise was developed by the Department of Microbiology and the US National Institutes of Health by modifying a smallpox vaccine that could be effective as a single dose. The results were published in The Journal of Immunology . Researchers in the Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine and the British Columbia Cancer Agency also identified a new inhibitor against H5N1. More broadly, basic research published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases suggests the body’s immune response could be enhanced to protect against several different influenza viruses at once, rather than the existing treatment of targeting single viruses, offering hope of a universal vaccine against flu. New Breakthroughs on Influenza “Maybe we will have a chance to avert the next pandemic” Both swine and birds have been implicated in the spread of flu viruses 29 The Review 2009 • Research